October Surprise?

Biden on the way out?

In private a month or so ago I predicted a scenario when things got desperate enough for the Obama campaign that Senator Biden would suddenly have a tragedy in the family that took him out of the race and the only acceptable replacement would be Hillary. At the time I made that prediction Obama's post convention numbers were nothing like they should be considering trends and historical averages. Most of that was due to the Palin addition to McCain's camp. Today it was announced that Biden would be missing some stops including a rally in Virginia due to the terminal nature of his mother-in-law's current condition. Comment pools in online news sources are starting to grow momentum for the idea that this is the time to swap VP choices. I just don't see it.

When I made that prediction the conditions were a moment of desperation, and Biden presenting a serious lag on the campaign. Right now that's not the case and while I'm sure Obama kicked himself several times for his 'safe' VP choice I seriously doubt that a 7 point lead and a strong momentum in swing states is the time to make that change. I doubt highly that Hillary would accept the offer if the campaign wasn't in a very weak position (making her look like the D's shining hero). And I doubt very highly that the chosen family emergency would be the passing of an elderly in-law.

I could be wrong and this might be the shift that takes ol' Joe out of the picture, but I just don't see it. If at the end of the month numbers for Obama have plummeted drastically then I'll return to the point but if sometime this week there's an announcement, count me in the wrong column.

As for right now I'm still busy trying to figure out who is hurt more by the passing of the wildly unpopular, pork filled, bloated embarrassment of a 'bailout' package that caused a drop, yes a DROP in the stock market. I know my Congressman and longtime family friend will get two less votes this election because of his choice to back socialism over the free market and free people.