Thursday, September 25, 2008

Electoral "Math"

Thanks to Real Clear Politics for the electoral map tool. Go there and create your own map if you like.

This is where I see the race for President right now. I base this analysis on a group of polls from a number of different sources and of course a whole bunch of sciencey stuff I like to call 'wild ass guessing' (it's a technical term you might not understand).

Right now I put Ohio, Virginia, and North Carolina in the Toss Up category. I still think all three of these states will end up in the McCain camp for several reasons but the numbers don't support that as of yet. I don't buy the Bradley Effect argument for most of the country but in these states I feel it may have enough of an impact to cover the margin. I also think Bradley will have an effect on Michigan but I just don't think it's enough to make a difference there. Some put Michigan still in play but in my opinion that's just blustering and this state will go D' as it usually does. With this mental math McCain has to keep all the pink states or he's lost the game. If Obama keeps the blue states and all his leaners he only has to turn one volatile state to take the ballgame. I'd keep my eyes on New Hampshire for some Obama attention in the coming weeks. If you pay attention to spending on both sides it seems like Pennsylvania is the proving ground. Traditionally a blue state McCain's numbers here have been the best an R has seen in recent memory. He's still a long shot but he's outspending Obama by a third there and has seen a slight polling lead more than once. A win in Penn and Ohio would deliver the White House for McCain barring a whole bunch of upset.

As of right now I'd say election night lawyers will be flooding into all the really close states with the above mentioned getting heavy attention as well as NV, FL, and possibly Colorado.

Remember though there's a ton of campaigning left to go, and much of the undecided vote is still up for grabs in these states. The events of this afternoon and the rest of this week, as well as the debate activities can have a tremendous effect on fence sitters as well as 'get out the vote' activities on both sides. Also lets not rule out the third party vote, as close races can be upset by the smallest margin there.

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